Imagine you are a senior official in Washington, Beijing or Tokyo. It’s February 12, 2025, and a major earthquake and tsunami strike Taiwan, crippling infrastructure and leaving millions of people on the island without access to food, water or communications. Almost immediately, geo-political tensions boil up as the world’s superpowers clash over the humanitarian response and jockey for power and position. The region – and possibly the world – are on the brink of war. 

What would you do? 

This was the scenario for a simulation organized by UVA Batten Associate Professor Alexander Bick as the capstone to his Fall 2024 undergraduate class, “Strategic Decision-Making” — one example of a range of academic offerings at the Batten School that help prepare students with the skills and knowledge to tackle the world’s most pressing problems. 

“It ended up being my favorite class,” said Katie Mae Owens, a first-year student in the College of Arts and Sciences who played the role of the U.N. Secretary General and plans to minor in public policy at Batten. She signed up for the course as an elective after reading about Bick, who has more than 20 years of experience in national security policy and research. “Professor Bick is just an excellent lecturer, and the course content was great,” Owens said. 

Earlier in the semester, students learned the conceptual foundations of decision-making and examined historical case studies, including the outbreak of World War I and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Bick encouraged them to think strategically, and to analyze the diverse motivations, pressures and constraints leaders and diplomats face: uncertainty, bias, domestic politics, poor communications, misunderstandings, sleep deprivation, language and cultural barriers, bad weather … the list goes on. 

The Taiwan simulation offered students the opportunity to wrestle with these and other challenges in real-time, and to test their own mettle in a crisis. It unfolded over four class periods, with prompts designed to reflect real-world tensions as closely as possible. Students were assigned to eight teams: China, the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, and the United Nations.

On day one, the teams got a half-hour briefing (by Zoom) on the history of Chinese-U.S.-Taiwan relations from Mark Christopher, an expert on China at the Atlantic Council who also advises nonprofit, government and corporate clients. Students were also able to consult Ryan Laine, a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Politics and Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Air Force who served as a "military advisor" throughout the simulation.

On day two, the teams had just 45 minutes for shuttle diplomacy between two classrooms in New Cabell Hall, concluding with a presentation of their first move. 

On day three, with the crisis escalating, they had another 45 minutes to negotiate and decide on their final actions. 

“It was fun. I like trying to make deals with people and figure out what their interests are and propose creative solutions,” said Ben Makarechian, BA ’25, who played Chinese President Xi JinPing in the simulation. This was no coincidence. Makarechian was in China over the summer taking an intensive language course, thanks to a scholarship from the UVA Department of East Asian Languages, Literatures and Cultures.  

Halfway through the second round of talks, Bick felt certain the teams were heading towards a major military confrontation. But a flurry of last-minute, hallway diplomacy managed to avert war. In the face of strong opposition from the U.S. team, Makarechian hammered out a deal to reincorporate Taiwan into China under the “one country, two systems” model in return for humanitarian assistance, while Owens coordinated a multilateral agreement to demine the waters around the island – a critical move to get the political and humanitarian pieces to fall into place. 

This outcome took almost everyone by surprise. 

On day four, the class did a “hot wash” to assess the implications of their choices, evaluate how and why each team had made their decisions, and identify lessons that could be applied to a real crisis. Some lessons were about strategy, including the importance of thinking backwards from where you want to end up; others were more tactical, like engaging allies early and keeping them close.  

“I am deeply impressed by your diplomacy and by how seriously you took this,” Bick told his class, before sending them off to complete the final assignment — a policy memo on how to manage the new reality that had emerged from their collective decisions.   

>> Read the documents provided to the students: Ground rules and Scenario.

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We will continue to feature a variety of courses and other experiential learning opportunities here at Batten that contribute to our school’s exceptional academic program in leadership and public policy.