In a paper recently published in JAMA Health Forum, UVA Batten Professor of Public Policy and Economics Chris Ruhm examines how the level of restrictions put in place by states affected the number of COVID-19 pandemic deaths in their jurisdictions.

Ruhm analyzed data from all 50 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia over a two-year period during which 1.18 million COVID deaths occurred. If all states had imposed COVID-19 restrictions similar to those in the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower.

If all states had imposed similar restrictions to those used in the 10 least restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 13%-17% higher.

These findings indicate that collectively, stringent COVID-19 restrictions were associated with substantial decreases in excess deaths during the pandemic.

“This cross-sectional analysis suggests that strong COVID-19 restrictions saved lives,” Ruhm concludes in the paper. “The death toll was probably considerably higher than it would otherwise have been in states that resisted imposing these restrictions, banned their use, or implemented them for only relatively short periods of time.

“These findings may be relevant for public health approaches addressing future pandemics and provide methodological approaches that may be useful for calculating excess deaths in a variety of situations.”

For media queries, contact Cat McCue, Assistant Director of Communications at the Batten School; cm2x-at-virginia.edu; 434-924-0567.