About News Do Republicans or Democrats benefit from mail-in voting? It turns out, neither Aug 27, 2020 Warren Cornwall Do Republicans or Democrats benefit from mail-in voting? It turns out, neither Voting by mail hasn’t given a big advantage to one political party, but Republican rhetoric could change the dynamic for November’s election. ALYSSA POINTER/ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION VIA APIn the United States, the coronavirus crisis has thrust a typically wonky debate—the effectiveness of mail-in voting—into the political spotlight. Republicans, led by President Donald Trump, this week again warned that expanding the use of mail-in ballots could give Democrats an edge in the November elections. Now, two independent studies suggest there’s little historical evidence to support that fear. But scientists warn that by making vote by mail a partisan issue, Republicans could lose mail-in votes and benefit Democrats in the midst of a caustic and pandemic-marred election season. Since 2000, a handful of states have switched almost exclusively to voting by mail, including Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, and Hawaii. Most researchers studied the moves to see whether they led to an increase in voter participation; largely unexplored, says Brigham Young University political scientist Michael Barber, was whether universal mail-in voting benefited one political party over another. That all changed when Republicans warned earlier this year that efforts to expand vote by mail could benefit Democrats. Barber and political scientist John Holbein at the University of Virginia decided to test those claims by comparing voting behavior in counties that switched to universal mail-in voting (175 counties in 2018) with the nearly 3000 counties that didn’t. They also looked at voter behavior before and after each changeover. They found that in presidential and midterm general elections between 1996 and 2018, switching to all-mail voting increased the percentage of residents who voted by 1.8% to 2.9%, they report today in Science Advances. When it came to the Democratic share of the vote, they found a tiny uptick in the share of votes that went to Democratic candidates for Congress, governor, and president—approximately 0.7%. But the difference was so small that the margin of statistical error means it’s possible there was no effect at all, Holbein says. “There might be a teensy, tiny effect on Democratic turnout.” Read the full article in Science Magazine John Holbein John Holbein is an assistant professor of public policy and education at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. Holbein studies political participation, political inequality, democratic accountability, political representation, and education policy. Read full bio Related Content John Holbein Are Americans less likely to reply to emails from Black people relative to White people? Research Although previous attempts have been made to measure everyday discrimination against African Americans, these approaches have been constrained by distinct methodological challenges. We present the results from an audit or correspondence study of a large-scale, nationally representative pool of the American public. We provide evidence that in simple day-to-day interactions, such as sending and responding to emails, the public discriminates against Black people. Mobilize for Our Lives? School Shootings and Democratic Accountability in U.S. Elections Research Gun violence is a large and growing problem in the United States. Many reformers look towards elections to spur policy change in this area. In this paper, we explore the effects of school shootings on electoral mobilization and election outcomes. African Americans Are Less Likely to Receive Responses to Emails, Study Finds News New evidence from a team of researchers, including Batten professor John Holbein, suggests that everyday racial discrimination is far more widespread than previous studies have indicated. Mahoney Receives UVA's Public Impact-Focused Research Award News During UVA's annual Research Achievement Awards, Christine Mahoney, professor of public policy and politics and director of SE@UVA, was recognized for her work supporting the rights of displaced people locally, nationally and globally. Batten's John Holbein and Jay Shimshack were also acknowledged for their research contributions. Stay Up To Date with the Latest Batten News and Events Subscribe
John Holbein John Holbein is an assistant professor of public policy and education at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. Holbein studies political participation, political inequality, democratic accountability, political representation, and education policy. Read full bio
Are Americans less likely to reply to emails from Black people relative to White people? Research Although previous attempts have been made to measure everyday discrimination against African Americans, these approaches have been constrained by distinct methodological challenges. We present the results from an audit or correspondence study of a large-scale, nationally representative pool of the American public. We provide evidence that in simple day-to-day interactions, such as sending and responding to emails, the public discriminates against Black people.
Mobilize for Our Lives? School Shootings and Democratic Accountability in U.S. Elections Research Gun violence is a large and growing problem in the United States. Many reformers look towards elections to spur policy change in this area. In this paper, we explore the effects of school shootings on electoral mobilization and election outcomes.
African Americans Are Less Likely to Receive Responses to Emails, Study Finds News New evidence from a team of researchers, including Batten professor John Holbein, suggests that everyday racial discrimination is far more widespread than previous studies have indicated.
Mahoney Receives UVA's Public Impact-Focused Research Award News During UVA's annual Research Achievement Awards, Christine Mahoney, professor of public policy and politics and director of SE@UVA, was recognized for her work supporting the rights of displaced people locally, nationally and globally. Batten's John Holbein and Jay Shimshack were also acknowledged for their research contributions.